What Happens When Environment Forecasts Get It Wrong?


THE ATMOSPHERE

How atmospheric rivers are revising the guidelines of seasonal forecasting.

A digitally created image showing a tree in the center, with one half of the background depicting a bright, sunny sky over green grass, and the other half showing heavy rain over dry, cracked ground. Four illustrated people, two men and two women, stand below the tree, each with a thoughtful expression and a question mark above their heads, symbolizing uncertainty about climate predictions.
Image produced by author with CANVA

T hings are transforming. For decades, researchers have relied upon the El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to forecast seasonal precipitation in the Western USA. Essentially, a strong El Niño usually implies wet wintertimes, while La Niña leans toward completely dry problems.

I still keep in mind finding out about El Niño-La Niñan events in center and secondary school or, later on, instructing about it to my basic students. The thing is that it’s a straightforward enough framework– except when it isn’t.

The wintertime of 2023 was a prime example of just how nature in some cases refuses to play by the rules. In spite of La Niña problems, which ought to have brought dryness to The golden state and the Southwest, the region was hit with record-breaking rain and snow.

Rather unexpected.

But what happened? What triggered this abnormality?

A new research study from scientists at UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography finds that the actual disruptor was a series of climatic rivers– huge bands of moisture that transportation water vapor across the sky like airborne conveyor belts.

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